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Applied Calculus Says Nutanix (NTNX) Is Mispriced—And the Math Is Hard to Ignore

Applied Calculus Says Nutanix (NTNX) Is Mispriced—And the Math Is Hard to Ignore

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Publication Date: 2025-12-02 18:30:00

From a cursory glance, it’s difficult not to feel incredible anxiety toward Nutanix (NTNX). Billed as an enterprise cloud operating system, Nutanix combines server, storage, virtualization and networking software into one integrated solution. Given the surge in demand for AI workload management, one would expect NTNX stock to shoot higher. Unfortunately, the opposite has been the case.

Blame the events associated with the latest financial disclosure. On paper, Nutanix’s fiscal first quarter was mixed, with adjusted earnings per share of 41 cents meeting Wall Street’s expectations. However, the cloud services provider only posted revenue of $670.6 million, missing the consensus target of $676.4 million.

However, what really seemed to unravel sentiment for NTNX stock was the forward guidance. For Q2, management guided revenue to land between $705 million and $740 million, comparing badly to analysts’ consensus estimate of $749.09 million. Pouring salt on wounds, Nutanix also lowered the full-year revenue outlook.

Subsequently, investors rushed for the exits. In the trailing five sessions, NTNX stock fell more than 18%. In the past 30 days, it’s down almost 34%, an alarming figure. If all that wasn’t enough to convince you that something is seriously wrong, you just need to look at Barchart’s Technical Opinion indicator, which rates NTNX as a 100% Strong Sell.

Still, in the same breath, Barchart notes that the security’s relative strength indicator (RSI) is…

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