Apple is in its Microsoft era

Apple $AAPL built its modern empire on a simple promise: The future would arrive neatly boxed, beautifully staged, and — crucially — worth the hassle. People updated because they wanted to. People upgraded because they couldn’t not. Apple would watch the world sprint to get the latest product or software like they were joining a cultural moment, even when the “moment” was mostly a slightly different lock screen or a new way for your phone to nag you about bedtime.

Now, that consumer sprint looks more like a shuffle — cautious, slightly annoyed, and faintly suspicious that “new” means “more intrusive” rather than “more exciting.” Apple’s old trick was making the future look fun. Its new trick is making the present feel expensive to leave. 

Heading into Thursday’s earnings, Apple looks increasingly like a company that wins by running a system — a mature platform that turns an installed base into recurring revenue, ships upgrades like maintenance, and…