Amazon (AMZN) Sees Bigger AWS Growth, but Rising Competition Could Pressure Returns

Eagle Capital Management, an investment management company, released its second quarter 2026 investor letter. A copy of the letter can be downloaded here. In the quarter, Eagle Capital Management discussed how enthusiasm around AI capital spending has driven strong S&P 500 earnings growth while also increasing risks from elevated valuations, concentrated demand, and aggressive investment assumptions. Eagle remains a strong believer in AI but prefers constructing a portfolio that can perform across multiple outcomes rather than relying on one forecast. The firm believes current earnings can overstate underlying economics because semiconductor equipment is depreciated over several years, while free cash flow growth remains much weaker. It also expects competition and additional capacity across AI labs, hyperscalers, and semiconductors to eventually create winners and losers. These dynamics are encouraging Eagle to recycle capital toward attractive opportunities outside the…