By John H Howard
Publication Date: 2026-02-22 13:34:00
Confident predictions about artificial intelligence dominate public debate – but history shows that predictions about the technological future are a poor guide to policy. Rather, it depends on the conditions that shape the actual use of AI.
Every week brings another confident prediction about artificial intelligence. Technology managers promise transformation. Consulting firms are predicting massive increases in productivity. Union leaders warn of job losses. AI researchers discuss existential risks.
Each prediction makes headlines and contradicts the others.
Policymakers tasked with regulating AI, investing in infrastructure, or preparing the workforce must grapple with this noise. Which expert should they believe? The honest answer is that no one knows what AI will do. The better question is whether prediction is even the right approach.
The history of technological forecasting should make us think. In the 1960s, experts predicted that there would be nuclear-powered cars and lunar bases by the year 2000.