AMD Reports Tuesday. Here’s the Number That Will Show Whether It’s Gaining on Nvidia | The Motley Fool

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD -7.52%) is scheduled to report third-quarter results after the market closes on Tuesday, and the stock is heading in on a shaky note. Shares fell nearly 11% on Friday and sold off further on Monday amid broader chip stock weakness, with no AMD-specific news. In all, AMD is down nearly 30% from its all-time high, reached less than a month ago.

Of course, we have no idea what AMD will report, but the headline results probably won’t be the surprise. AMD guided for revenue of about $13 billion, plus or minus $300 million, and analysts expect $13.09 billion, which would be 41.5% higher than a year ago.

The guidance is the real story

The more important figure is likely to be AMD’s fourth-quarter guidance, and specifically how much of it comes from data center GPUs. AMD began shipping its Helios rack-scale systems, built on its MI450 chips, in September, so the third quarter won’t include a full period of its volume. However, management said on its last call that it expects the ramp to accelerate meaningfully in the fourth quarter.

The average estimate among Wall Street analysts is about $16.3 billion in fourth-quarter revenue, and Jefferies analyst Blayne Curtis expects closer to $17 billion. A forecast at or above that higher level would suggest Helios demand is turning into revenue at an impressive pace. AMD has plenty of big…