Should You Buy And Hold Microsoft Stock?

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Microsoft (MSFT) stock has returned 30.5% since April 30, 2026, against 7.7% for the S&P 500. A buyer today is paying for a run that has already happened. Yet the shares trade at 27.6 times earnings, which falls below the 31.5 average of the stock’s readings at its last 12 fiscal quarter ends. If you bought at today’s price and held for three years, what could the shares return?

One Scenario Puts Microsoft’s Three-Year Return Near 48%

Under one set of assumptions, holding Microsoft for three years would return about 48.1%, before dividends. This scenario assumes revenue grows 15.2% a year, representing 85% of Microsoft’s latest twelve-month pace, and the P/E stays at today’s level. The year-three net margin incorporates a blend: 70% of today’s margin and 30% of its average at earlier fiscal quarter ends.

Here is how today’s figures compare with year three of the…