Nvidia Stock Is Up 13% This Year. Where Does the Stock Stand Now?

Key Takeaways

• Nvidia stock is up 13.4% this year to $214.13 as of October 16, even after Q2 revenue more than doubled to $96 billion.
• The mean Street target of $328.72 sits 53.5% above the close; 49 analysts rate the stock a Buy, 10 an Outperform, 2 a Hold and 1 a Sell, with 1 No Opinion.
• My model lands at $436.49 by January 2031, a 103.8% total return, or 18.0% a year.
• Q3 results land November 17, against a $108 billion revenue guide.

NVIDIA (NVDA) stock is up 13.4% since early January, closing at $214.13 on October 16, after a $96.2 billion second quarter and a guide for about 70% revenue growth in fiscal 2028.

Nvidia stock hit its 2026 closing high of $239.24 on October 6. By October 16, it was down 6.2% from its September 30 close of $228.38, including a 6.6% drop during the week of October 12 by my math, when the PHLX Semiconductor Index fell more than 11%. Reuters tied the AI selloff to rate-hike bets after hot inflation data and to the $50 billion debt load at CoreWeave, a cloud provider Nvidia backs.

Nvidia Doubled Revenue and Guided a Year Out

Nvidia stock drifted between the high $170s and low $190s through March, slid to the mid-$160s in early April, then climbed to the mid-$230s by mid-May. The summer was a range, with the stock trading between the low $190s and the mid-$220s into late August.

Then came the August 26 report:

• Revenue reached $96 billion, more than double a year…