By Vandita Jadeja
Publication Date: 2026-10-12 13:30:00
NVIDIA just doubled its revenue per gigawatt of AI capacity and posted triple-digit earnings growth, yet its stock has struggled to keep pace with the profits. A $350 price target sounds ambitious until you see what the math actually requires.
NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA | NVDA Price Prediction) now makes about $40 billion per gigawatt of AI capacity built on Vera Rubin, up from roughly $18 billion with Hopper. That shift is a big reason a company worth about $5.76 trillion may still have room to grow.
Shares are up 27.67% year to date. Over the same stretch, quarterly earnings grew 127.8% year over year. The stock has fallen behind the profits. So can NVIDIA reach $350 by October 2027?
What’s Holding NVIDIA Back Right Now
The stock gained 4.55% over the past week and 3.23% over the past month, modest moves for a business that just reported quarterly revenue of $96.22B, up 105.8%. Supply is the main constraint.
On the August call, management said, “Our entire supply chain is challenged.” Gross margin was 75% in Q2, but management expects 71% to 72% in Q4 because memory prices are rising. With a beta of 2.216, the stock swings about twice as much as the broader market.
Wall Street Sees 37% Upside, and I Think That’s Closer to Right
The consensus target is $328.72, or 37.4% upside. Ratings stand at 10 Strong Buys, 48 Buys, 2 Holds and 1 Sell. Our model is more cautious, with a base case of $276.74 (15.67% upside). Its range runs from $237.97 to $323.41, and it carries…
