Starting from the same base amount on October 5, 2023, Shopify’s position has grown to $30,678 while Amazon’s reached $19,959. Holding one e-commerce name over the other changed the outcome entirely.
The spread did not open in a straight line: Shopify pulled back toward its starting value more than once before surging decisively higher. Amazon moved more steadily but never found the acceleration to close the gap.
By the end of the three years, Shopify’s position had reached a 3.07x multiple while Amazon’s arrived at almost exactly 2x. The stock-picking decision within e-commerce alone drove the entire difference.
Divergence inside a single sector label can be enormous over a medium-term horizon. Both companies are genuine e-commerce names, yet treating them as equivalent expressions of the same theme turned out to be a costly assumption.
