By David Beren
Publication Date: 2026-10-02 18:52:00
Key Takeaways
- On The Compound and Friends, Ritholtz Wealth Management’s Josh Brown said NVIDIA could generate $360 billion in free cash flow next year, nearly four times its free cash flow in its last fiscal year.
- NVIDIA’s valuation implies its earnings are about to fade, and its cash flow record points the other way.
- Brown’s $680 billion revenue figure is in line with Wall Street’s consensus, and the main risk is that some of today’s chip sales are being pulled forward from later years.
- At about 19 times forward earnings, NVIDIA trades at roughly half its 10-year average of 37 times.
Josh Brown thinks NVIDIA (NVDA) is about to generate a staggering amount of cash.
On the Sept. 29 episode of The Compound and Friends, the Ritholtz Wealth Management CEO put a number on it:
“Next year, it could be $360 billion in free cash flow on $680 billion in revenue.”
That’s more than double the record $150 billion buyback NVIDIA announced on Sept. 28. (TIKR ran the math on that buyback here.)
His co-host Michael Batnick, Ritholtz’s director of research, added that NVIDIA’s operating earnings over the past 12 months are now above those of Apple (AAPL): “It’s legitimate actual earnings. These are not estimates.”
And yet the stock trades as if those earnings are about to shrink.
How big is $360 billion?
Start with NVIDIA’s cash generation. According to TIKR, free cash flow jumped from $8.1 billion in the fiscal year ended…
