By TradingView
Publication Date: 2026-10-01 14:51:00
Nvidia (NVDA) could end up generating more hyperscaler revenue than Wall Street currently expects, with Barclays analyst Tom O’Malley using “napkin math” from Nvidia’s latest IT spending data to estimate $401 billion in 2027 revenue.
In a note to investors cited by TheFly, he said the calculation leaves out SpaceX (SPCX) from the capex comparison, potentially making the implied revenue opportunity even larger.
NVDA stock edged 0.6% higher in morning trade on Thursday, with retail sentiment around the company on Stocktwits trending in ‘neutral’ territory over the past day.
The ‘Napkin Math’ Of Nvidia Revenue
According to O’Malley’s calculations, Nvidia could generate $237 billion in hyperscaler revenue in 2026 and $401 billion in 2027, compared with Barclays’ existing estimates of $206 billion and $370 billion, respectively.
In an upside scenario, the firm sees hyperscaler revenue reaching $246 billion in 2026 and $417 billion in 2027.
The calculation is based on a chart Nvidia shared, showing its share of IT capital spending among the five largest cloud service providers over the past several years, as well as its estimate for 2027. Nvidia’s share is projected to reach 44% in 2027, according to O’Malley.
SpaceX Could Make The Math Even Bigger
Nvidia’s reported hyperscaler revenue includes SpaceX (SPCX), while the 44% IT capex share shown in its chart covers only the top five cloud service providers.
Barclays says that difference would imply an even…
