By Keith Speights
Publication Date: 2026-04-14 09:10:00
Five years ago, Nvidia‘s (NVDA +0.29%) market cap hovered around $390 billion. Today, it’s worth almost $4.6 trillion and ranks as the world’s largest technology company (and the world’s largest company, period) by market cap.
However, one top analyst believes that Nvidia should be valued much higher. UBS‘ (UBS +2.75%) John Talbott pegs the company’s valuation at a whopping $22 trillion. That’s not a projection for five or 10 years in the future, by the way; it’s what the UBS Holt model assesses Nvidia’s true valuation at right now.
If Talbott and his team are right, Nvidia should be the world’s first $22 trillion stock. But there’s a big catch.
Image source: Nvidia.
$22 trillion isn’t a number plucked out of the air
The HOLT model was originally developed in the 1970s and was bought by Credit Suisse in 2002. When UBS acquired Credit Suisse in 2023, it added the tool to its product lineup. At its core, HOLT is a discounted cash flow (DCF) model. It doesn’t rely on earnings multiples or analysts’ price targets. Instead, the model uses cash flow return on investment (CFROI). UBS believes that CFROI better reflects companies’ underlying economics than other metrics.
The average CFROI for non-financial companies is 6%. Nvidia’s is 73%. This level ranks the GPU maker in the top 0.1% of all the companies the HOLT model has ever tracked. HOLT also looks at asset growth. Nvidia’s asset growth puts it in the top 0.5% of all companies ever tracked in its database.
Nvidia also…
