Google Cloud exec on software’s great reset and the end of certainty: we’re shifting from predictability to probability | Fortune

Google Cloud exec on software’s great reset and the end of certainty: we’re shifting from predictability to probability | Fortune

By Yasmeen Ahmad
Publication Date: 2026-01-21 14:08:00

You’ve likely heard the terms “deterministic” and “probabilistic” in discussions about AI, but what does that really mean? And what does it mean for your business?

On one side, we have the deterministic model. This is how we have built software and businesses for 50 years. Every piece of software you bought – from your CRM system to a basic spreadsheet – has been precise, rule-bound, and intolerant of error. Input A plus Input B always equals Output C. If it doesn’t, you have a bug that needs fixing.

On the other side, we have Generative AI that breaks this rule. It is probabilistic, creative and context-dependent. The same inputs can produce different outputs. It’s a reasoning engine, not a calculator.

This allows you to ask questions that deterministic systems can’t answer. What will tariffs do to my revenue this year? How would conflict in the Taiwan Strait affect my commodities pricing? Questions like these have no certain answer, but foundation AI…