3 Forces That Could Shake Broadcom Stock | Trefis

Broadcom (AVGO) has stumbled before. Its stock has plunged more than 30% within a span of less than 2 months on 2 occasions in recent years, wiping out billions in market value, and erasing massive gains in a single correction. If history is any guide, AVGO stock isn’t immune to sudden, sharp declines.

Specifically, we see these risks:

1. VMware Post-Acquisition Customer Revolt
2. AI-Driven Margin Compression
3. Geopolitical Retaliation and Tariff Headwinds

Risk 1: VMware Post-Acquisition Customer Revolt

• Details: Projected market share drop from 70% to 40% by 2029 (Gartner), Erosion of high-margin recurring software revenue as enterprises flee
• Segment Affected: Infrastructure Software
• Potential Timeline: Next 12-24 months
• Evidence: Customers reporting forced subscription bundling and 800%-1,500% price increases (May 2025), Tesco files £100m lawsuit alleging contract violation (Jan 2026),…